The conventional wisdom says that Leicester City have a difficult next two matches, against Sunderland and West Ham United, which could open the title race back up for Tottenham Hotspur. But the conventional wisdom is wrong.
For a counter-attacking side like Leicester, the easier games are not the ones against sides with nothing to play for and nothing to prove, teams who would be willing to sit back and play out the 0-0. Those are the hard games.
The easier games, in fact, are against sides who need to win, sides like Sunderland and West Ham who will throw everything at them in pursuit of the three points. Leicester play Sunderland on Sunday West Ham next Sunday and then Manchester United on 1 May. They will be relishing the prospect.
This is because the story of Leicester City’s success is turning the opposition’s weakness into their own strength. They are top of the Premier League because of how they have exploited the desperation, impatience and snobbery of other teams when facing them.
The more impatient a team is when facing Leicester, the more vulnerable they are. The more men they desperately throw forward looking for a goal, the more they are likely to concede. So the more pressure Leicester are under, the more likely they are to score. That is way Leicester have played all season and it is surely going to win them the Premier League title.
Just look at two of the outstanding wins of Leicester’s season. In December they beat Chelsea 2-1 at home, in Jose Mourinho’s final game. Chelsea looked desperate to turn their season around but Leicester sat back, had just 34 per cent possession, and beat them on the break. Or when they went to the Etihad Stadium in February, against an arrogant and complacent Manchester City side, and won 3-1, a game which I have dissected in this column before.
In those two games, and many others before, Leicester had the luxury of playing precisely how they wanted to, whether away or at home. They sat deep, surrendered possession, and waited for their opponent to take the initiative, and to open themselves up.Then they counter-attacked with their blistering pace. What always impresses me about Leicester, and this is not a word we often use in English football, is their patience. They do not chase games, and they certainly do not panic if they do not have the lead by the 75th or even 85th minute. They are happy to sit and wait until they get their chance. That patience comes from Claudio Ranieri himself, and the trust he has in his players to execute their plan.
Their winner against Tottenham was in the 83rd minute. Their winner against Norwich in the 89th. If Sam Allardyce’s Sunderland try to out-wait them on Saturday they will eventually crack too, and Leicester will take advantage of their desperation for the three points.
So Leicester invite the opposition onto them, knowing that it works in their favour. I have seen a lot of Leicester this season and I would say that as much as 80 per cent of their goals come against the run of play, especially their recent winners against Southampton and Crystal Palace. When was the last time we said that a goal for Leicester has been coming?
Only recently, with Leicester looking increasingly likely to win the title, have other teams realised what they are trying to do.
In Leicester’s first 12 home games this season, they had less possession than their opponent in 11 of them. The one where they did in fact have more of the ball was against a 10-man Bournemouth side. Leicester were delighted with this, the less of the ball they have, the better. Look at the graphic showing their average positions in the 2-1 defeat of Chelsea – the archetypal Leicester performance – and how deep Jamie Vardy could play, happy to lie in wait to attack on the break.
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